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By Max Meyer

Four teams are dreaming of a national championship to cap off stellar campaigns. On the final day of 2021, they will be battling in the College Football Playoff semifinals to get one step closer to a date with history.

Based off Caesars Sportsbook’s preseason national championship futures, it’s not a surprise to see Alabama (+260 favorite heading into the season) and Georgia (+750, tied for fourth-lowest) at this stage. Meanwhile, Michigan (100/1) and Cincinnati (150/1) are the two biggest preseason longshots ever to have crashed the CFP field, and each will be looking to pull off an upset tomorrow. One of them has even been receiving overwhelming action on the moneyline to do so.

The first CFP semifinal matchup kicks off tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT on ESPN, when No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Cincinnati clash in the Cotton Bowl. Not only is Cincinnati making its CFP debut, but this is the first appearance for any Group of 5 team. Alabama has made seven of eight CFPs, with its one semifinal loss coming in the inaugural one—a 42-35 setback to Ohio State in 2015.

The defending champion Crimson Tide (-550 on the moneyline) have remained at -13.5 over the Bearcats (+400 ML) after opening at that number. This is the first time all season that Cincinnati has been an underdog in any game. The total has dropped by a hair, decreasing from 58 to 57.5.

“I think the line is fair,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading for Caesars Sportsbook. “Alabama, all it took was that one performance against Georgia [in the SEC Championship Game] to flip the script on them. I don’t see it getting to 14 despite all the Alabama action, I think that would be too high and cause some people to jump on the dog. But you never know, the rash of public money is going to come in tomorrow because of all these other bowl games going on.”

Alabama hasn’t covered as a double-digit favorite in each of its past two CFP semifinals, yet the majority of Caesars Sportsbook bettors are expecting the tide to turn tomorrow. The heavy favorite has drawn 75% of the total number of tickets and 87% of the total dollars wagered among all spread bets against the Bearcats. For moneyline it’s more divided, with Cincinnati grabbing 82% of the total number of tickets and Alabama possessing the advantage in total dollars wagered at 53%.

Even though the total has only moved by half a point, there’s been significant action on one side of it. The under has brought in 57% of the total number of tickets and 94% of the total dollars wagered. That is highlighted by a Nevada bettor who placed $110,000 on Cincinnati vs. Alabama under 58 (-110) for potential winnings of $100,000, the largest wager taken thus far for this game at Caesars Sportsbook. Interestingly, the under has cashed in Alabama’s last five CFP semifinal affairs.

The later showdown takes place at the Orange Bowl at 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT on ESPN, as No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia engage in a battle of the heavyweights. The Wolverines will be playing in their first CFP semifinal, whereas the Bulldogs’ 54-48 double-overtime triumph over Oklahoma in 2018 was their only other CFP semifinal appearance.

The Wolverines come into this one with the higher ranking, however they’re the one getting points. Georgia (-300 ML) is a 7.5-point favorite over Michigan (+240 ML) after originally being displayed at -7, while the total has jumped from 43 to 45.5. This is just the third time the Wolverines have been underdogs this season, nevertheless they won by double digits in the previous two instances—42-27 over Ohio State (-7.5) and 31-17 against Wisconsin (-2). Besides being perfect as an underdog, Michigan has been fantastic covering the number in general this season after going an FBS-best 11-2 against the spread.

Many Caesars Sportsbook bettors think another cover is in the cards for the Big Ten champion, with Michigan capturing 68% of the total number of tickets and 56% of the total dollars wagered. That pales in comparison, though, to the action the Wolverines have gotten on the moneyline—a whopping 94% of the total number of tickets and 93% of the total dollars wagered.

“I’m not surprised that Michigan has been a big public underdog,” Pullen said. “I think the line is high too, I was surprised that this was over a touchdown. Georgia is a great team but they don’t provide the wow factor since they’re primarily a defensive team. Now they’re viewed as vulnerable too after Alabama put all of those points on them. That’s thrown a seed of doubt into people, they’re backing Michigan everywhere. More straight bets, more moneyline, more futures—Michigan’s now our biggest championship liability when before it was Georgia.”

There’s alignment on the total as well, with the over generating 78% of the total number of tickets and 98% of the total dollars wagered.

Check out Caesars Sportsbook’s latest odds and trends for tomorrow’s CFP semifinals below.