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By Max Meyer

When Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, Kansas City did not lose its first game by more than one score until Super Bowl 55 against the Buccaneers. Over the past three weeks, the Chiefs have been blown out by the Bills at home 38-20 and yesterday on the road vs. the Titans 27-3. 

The Chiefs are now 3-4, which is tied for last place in the AFC West with the Broncos and two games behind the first-place Raiders. While many football fans are debating whether the sky is falling in Kansas City, do Caesars Sportsbook’s recent futures odds shifts surrounding the team suggest panic or patience?

Kansas City was the +500 Super Bowl favorite heading into the season at Caesars Sportsbook. The Chiefs were no longer atop the board after falling to the Bills, as their swing from +550 to +750 put them behind the then-co-favorites Buccaneers (+550) and Bills (+550). 

After the embarrassing rout to the Titans, the Chiefs experienced their most dramatic shift yet. Kansas City was still residing at +750 (third-lowest odds) heading into the contest, and has since risen all the way up to 13/1. Besides the Buccaneers (+500) and Bills (+550), the Chiefs are currently behind the Rams (+850), Cardinals (+900), Packers (11/1), Ravens (11/1) and Cowboys (12/1) as well.

“At 13/1, that’s still a lot of respect given their record and how they’ve looked,” said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Nobody is scared of the Chiefs anymore given how bad the defense is. All the pressure is on Mahomes because the offense has to score in the thirties just to keep them competitive. Before this season, that would get them the win pretty much every time. But they still have Mahomes, Tyreek, Kelce and Reid, that’s very dangerous come playoff time. I don’t think they would be favored against the Bills or the Ravens on a neutral field right now, but they would be favored against the rest of the AFC teams. 

And that shift pales in comparison to Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds. Mahomes entered this campaign as the +500 favorite, however he lost the top spot to Kyler Murray after the Chargers loss. His odds jumped even higher after the Bills affair (+650 to 15/1) and then to unfathomable heights after yesterday’s thrashing (16/1 to 40/1). There are eight quarterbacks and even one running back ahead of the Chiefs gunslinger on the board at Caesars Sportsbook.

“Mahomes look a little desperate right now out there,” Mucklow said. “He’s trying to do too much, and he’s got enough talent on that side of the ball. If they turn it around and win the division, Mahomes has to be MVP caliber going forward. What’s holding back Mahomes is that he’s going up against a loaded field and he has way too many turnovers. The other top quarterbacks have been much better at taking care of the football.”

But besides their declining standing for the most prestigious trophies, what about Kansas City’s odds just to make the playoffs or win the division? 

Before the season, the Chiefs had the heaviest price of any team (-1100 YES, NO +650) to make their seventh straight postseason. Even going into this week, Kansas City’s YES price was -500 (NO +350). The odds are much tighter now, though YES (-190) is still leading the way over NO (+170). 

One New Jersey bettor already backed Kansas City to miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2014-15 season. They bet $7,000 back when the NO was at +340 for potential winnings of $23,800.

For the division, the Chiefs (+230) are sandwiched between the Chargers (-105) and Raiders (+360) to finish in first in the AFC West. Kansas City was -320 before the season, while Los Angeles was at +600. The Chargers rose to the top after the Chiefs fell to the Bills, edging Kansas City +120 to +125.

Yet, even with all of the panic, the Chiefs are still one of three double-digit favorites for Week 8 action at Caesars Sportsbook. Kansas City is listed at -10 at home against the Giants on Monday night. Last week’s lookahead line for this showdown was Chiefs -13 and it reopened at -10.5. After reaching as high as -11 and as low as -9.5 since, it has settled at its current number.

“If they lose to the Giants, that would be the teller for how much trouble they’re in,” Mucklow said. “All of their losses right now are to teams that will make the playoffs. Games against the Giants are the ones you are expected to win and win easily. Teams bigger than a touchdown favorite are 28-2 this year, one of the two losers was the Chiefs against the Chargers. If they lose this, that’s when their odds could go into freefall.”

Check out Caesars Sportsbook’s futures odds for Chiefs Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes MVP throughout the season below. 