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By Max Meyer

The biggest spread shift of Week 16? The lowest total of the NFL season? Two teams fighting for their playoff lives? You can’t ask for more from Dolphins at Saints tonight at the Caesars Superdome, with each foe looking to creep above the .500 mark before ringing in the new year.

Miami is in the midst of a six-game winning streak after a dreadful 1-7 start, and a road victory here would propel them to the No. 7 seed in the AFC. On the other side, New Orleans is on its fourth quarterback of the season following the news that both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian were placed on the COVID-19 reserve list. Rookie signal-caller Ian Book will make his debut under center.

After opening as 3-point underdogs, the line has swung by 6 points to make the Dolphins (-175 on the moneyline) a 3-point road favorite over the Saints (+150 ML). A 3-point move on the total (40.5 to 37.5) is tied for the second-biggest total shift in Week 16 with Bears at Seahawks (44 to 41), and only trails Buccaneers at Panthers (47.5 to 44).

“I think this line might touch 3.5 if this Dolphins money continues,” said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Now that they can control their own playoff destiny, I think people will jump on that bandwagon. There’s been a lot of sharp action on this game. There’s also more public money coming in with all but one of the heavy favorites winning and covering yesterday. We’ll definitely be Saints fans tonight.”

The Dolphins are getting the bulk of the action on the spread, with Miami capturing 70% of the total number of tickets and 88% of the total dollars wagered. That is highlighted by one Nevada bettor who put $120,000 on Dolphins +3.5 (-120) for potential winnings of $100,000, and then followed that up with a $110,000 wager on Dolphins -1.5 (-110) for another potential win of $100,000.

Miami has also notched 60% of the total dollars wagered for all moneyline bets against New Orleans. Yet, it’s the home underdog Saints that have wound up with 64% of the total number of tickets in that department.

The aforementioned total of 37.5 is the lowest this NFL season. Only two other games, Patriots at Texans (39) in Week 5 and Washington at Eagles (39.5) in Week 15, have closed with a total under 40 at Caesars Sportsbook. Each of those went over the number, however Caesars Sportsbook bettors are split on how many points will be scored tonight.

The over has nabbed 68% of the total number of tickets, whereas the under has generated 78% of the total dollars wagered. That includes the largest bet taken thus far for this contest at Caesars Sportsbook, as another Nevada bettor put $250,000 on Dolphins at Saints under 37.5 (-110) for potential winnings of $227,272.70.

“There’s been a couple standalone game where we’ve actually needed the over for small, but tonight’s is a big one,” Mucklow said. “We really need the over tonight. This total is among the highest bet for any total this year from a sharp point of view, not quite from a public point of view. When it’s like the Cowboys or the Buccaneers playing on prime-time games, those overs would be really popular. But this will probably be a top-10 handle for a total this season.”

Check out Caesars Sportsbook’s latest odds and trends for tonight’s showdown between the Dolphins and Saints below.