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By Max Meyer

One matchup on the NFL Week 7 schedule has had the biggest spread and total shift of any game so far at Caesars Sportsbook. And it’s the clash that kicks off the slate.

The Browns host the Broncos on Thursday night, and it’s not an ideal time for short rest for the home team. Cleveland has already ruled out quarterback Baker Mayfield along with running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Cleveland originally was 5-point chalk, and resided at -3.5 earlier today. After the official announcement that backup quarterback Case Keenum would be under center instead of an injured Mayfield, the spread swung ever further from -3.5 to -2. Additionally, this showdown features the only Week 7 total to move by more than a point, as it has decreased from 44 to 41.

“A star quarterback like Aaron Rodgers is probably worth like 8, 9 points right now,” said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Baker Mayfield is not Aaron Rodgers, so the line only going down by a few points reflects where he ranks among quarterbacks in the league. Also I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between Mayfield and Keenum. The drop-off is not that significant in my eyes versus some of the other backups in the league. Mayfield being out isn’t the only reason this line has shifted, the Browns have a lot of injuries across the board. We saw sharp money on the Broncos on Monday.”

Another spread has also shifted by multiple points after being the only pick’em on the board for Sunday night openers. The Falcons and Dolphins will square off in Miami, and the line has changed to Atlanta as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Falcons have not closed as a road favorite so far this campaign, while Miami has only been a home underdog once—against the Bills in Week 2 where the Dolphins lost 35-0. 

“It’s really rare for a team to not have a bye after a London game,” Mucklow said. “The Falcons went to London the week before and got a week of rest after beating a bad Jets team. The Dolphins played badly against the Jaguars, and now they have to play this weekend after all that travel. That move makes a lot of sense to me, it’s a huge rest and travel advantage for Atlanta.”

Two other spreads have been altered by 1.5 points, and they’ve each gone in favor of the road team. The Saints have jumped up from -3.5 to -5 for Monday night’s game vs. the Seahawks, while Washington has fallen from +10 to +8.5 against the Packers. Washington isn’t the only squad that opened as a double-digit underdog that has received attention this week, and another notable spread move could be coming soon.

“The Bears plus the points against the Bucs has stood out in terms of sharp action so far,” Mucklow said. “It’s going to move from 12.5 for sure unless there’s an injury that we’re unaware of. The sharps sometimes can be a good day ahead of the moves, like with the Broncos this week against the Browns. I think the public hammering the Bucs won’t let it drop too far, but that’s a line I’d keep my eye on.”

Check out Caesars Sportsbook’s biggest spread and total shifts thus far for NFL Week 7 below. 